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Air France-KLM (NR, BB+, BBB-) Strikes

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  • Continuing air traffic controller strikes in Paris-Orly airport (though 1 day for now) despite AFFP in earnings late last month reassuring the government had settled issues with them and the risk had "now been eliminated for the rest of the year."
  • Reminder AFFP runs the lowest EBIT margin (FY23 5.7%) & faced pressure on non-fuel unit costs that were up +4%yoy in Q1 which included a 0.8ppt drag in operational disruptions. Guidance is for unit costs ex. fuel to come in at +2% in Q2.
  • New 29s (NR/BB+/BBB-) are -30 in from pricing after giving a 20bp NIC. We don't see much value in it here & see it staying crossover rated for now. There is 40bp pickup into new Finnair (NR/BB+) that screens attractive to us and/or safer rotation into retailer Dufry/Avolta (Ba2/BB+) with no spread give.

France Asks Airlines to Cancel 70% of Orly Flights May 25: AFP; {NSN SDZJEYDWLU68 <GO>}

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  • Continuing air traffic controller strikes in Paris-Orly airport (though 1 day for now) despite AFFP in earnings late last month reassuring the government had settled issues with them and the risk had "now been eliminated for the rest of the year."
  • Reminder AFFP runs the lowest EBIT margin (FY23 5.7%) & faced pressure on non-fuel unit costs that were up +4%yoy in Q1 which included a 0.8ppt drag in operational disruptions. Guidance is for unit costs ex. fuel to come in at +2% in Q2.
  • New 29s (NR/BB+/BBB-) are -30 in from pricing after giving a 20bp NIC. We don't see much value in it here & see it staying crossover rated for now. There is 40bp pickup into new Finnair (NR/BB+) that screens attractive to us and/or safer rotation into retailer Dufry/Avolta (Ba2/BB+) with no spread give.

France Asks Airlines to Cancel 70% of Orly Flights May 25: AFP; {NSN SDZJEYDWLU68 <GO>}