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MNI China Press Digest Oct 16: Yuan, Q3 GDP, Trade

MNI picks key stories from today's China press.
Central Bank NewsPolicy NewsPBOCHomepageAPACChinaEM Policy NewsChinaEM Central Bank NewsPeoples Bank of ChinaGlobalStoryRegion
MNI (BEIJING)

Highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

  • The yuan will likely fluctuate between 7-7.3 against the U.S. dollar amid decreasing expectations for Federal Reserverate cuts this year and rising momentum of the so-called Trump trade, Yicai.com reported, citing analysts. China’s central bank is expected to increase the intensity of the countercyclical factor should the yuan face increased selling pressure, the newspaper said. Exporters who previously started forex settlement have adopted a wait-and-see approach to market changes, the newspaper noted. Chinese exporters hold about USD500 billion, with up to USD200 billion likely to be settled should the offshore yuan strengthen below the 7.1 level, according to estimations, the newspaper added.
  • Chief economists expect China’s GDP to have grown 4.65% during Q3, down from Q2’s 4.7%, according to results from Yicai news agency’s Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index. The headline index reached 50.62 in October, higher than September’s 49.96, as economists expected incremental policies would boost investment and consumption confidence. Participants' average GDP growth forecast for 2024 was 4.88%, with Q4 expanding by 5.0%. Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank, expects September’s growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to reach 2.5%, up from 2.1% previously.
  • China and the U.S. remain close trading partners despite trade frictions, according to Zhang Xiaotao, an economics dean at the Central University of Finance and Economics, who cites recent data showing total trade between the two countries grew 4.2% y/y between January and September, with exports up 4.6% y/y and imports by 2.7%. Zhang said China can address growing global trade tensions by increasing bilateral negotiations and developing trade partnerships with Latin America and Belt and Road members.
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MNI (BEIJING)

Highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

  • The yuan will likely fluctuate between 7-7.3 against the U.S. dollar amid decreasing expectations for Federal Reserverate cuts this year and rising momentum of the so-called Trump trade, Yicai.com reported, citing analysts. China’s central bank is expected to increase the intensity of the countercyclical factor should the yuan face increased selling pressure, the newspaper said. Exporters who previously started forex settlement have adopted a wait-and-see approach to market changes, the newspaper noted. Chinese exporters hold about USD500 billion, with up to USD200 billion likely to be settled should the offshore yuan strengthen below the 7.1 level, according to estimations, the newspaper added.
  • Chief economists expect China’s GDP to have grown 4.65% during Q3, down from Q2’s 4.7%, according to results from Yicai news agency’s Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index. The headline index reached 50.62 in October, higher than September’s 49.96, as economists expected incremental policies would boost investment and consumption confidence. Participants' average GDP growth forecast for 2024 was 4.88%, with Q4 expanding by 5.0%. Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank, expects September’s growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to reach 2.5%, up from 2.1% previously.
  • China and the U.S. remain close trading partners despite trade frictions, according to Zhang Xiaotao, an economics dean at the Central University of Finance and Economics, who cites recent data showing total trade between the two countries grew 4.2% y/y between January and September, with exports up 4.6% y/y and imports by 2.7%. Zhang said China can address growing global trade tensions by increasing bilateral negotiations and developing trade partnerships with Latin America and Belt and Road members.