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Air France Reports Q4 Operating Miss; Curve Widens By Up To 20bps

TRANSPORTATION


  • Despite in-line Q4 Rev of +4% YoY, Q4 EBITDA came in -24% YoY and -25% vs. consensus while the operating result was a EUR 56mn loss vs an expected EUR 140mn profit.
  • Management attributed the results to geopolitical disruption in MENA and increased unit costs (despite offset from lower fuel prices).
  • FY24 outlook; +5% capacity vs. +9.5% this year, unit costs +1-2% vs. +3.5% this year, CapEx EUR 3-3.2bn vs. EUR 3.55bn this year.
  • Leverage of 1.2x up slightly from 1.1x at Q3, Q4 FCF of negative EUR 1.2bn (FY outflow of EUR 400mn).

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