MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 25

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Airlines continue to weaken

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Poor earnings right before macro falling apart has left airlines in a rout. AFFP stock is trading through all time lows while new 29s are on the 3-handle on spreads over bunds.
  • Geopolitical tensions causing flights to Lebanon & Israel to be halted are not helping sentiment and may be another drag on numbers (particularly when we have overcapacity in other regions).
  • Positives include IAG earnings on Thursday which we will circle back on and fuel prices {JET1NECC Index} that are falling towards this years lows.
  • We'd reject any rhetoric that airline earnings have missed on weakening consumer demand; its been driven by weaker pricing which costs have not followed. Passenger numbers & distance travelled are still seeing strong yoy growth.

Movers this morning;

  • Air France equities; {AF FP Equity - 4.4%}
  • AFFP new 29s +34bps/-1.2pts
  • new Avolta/Dufry 31s +16bps/-0.5pts
  • IAGLN 29s +12
  • LHAGR new 30s +7
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