Al-Sadr Says His Party Will Withdraw From Gov't, Not Fight Oct Election

Populist Shia cleric and spiritual leader of the largest party in the Iraqi Council of Representatives, Muqtada al-Sadr, has stated that his Saairun party will withdraw from gov't and will not contest the October legislative election.

• The announcement comes after the second deadly fire in a short period of time ripped through an Iraqi hospital. The country's health ministry is under Saairun control as part of PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi's broad coalition gov't, causing significant embarrassment for al-Sadr's group.
• Should be noted that while al-Sadr says his party will withdraw from gov't, not contest the election, and not endorse any other party, these statements have been made in the past, only for the cleric to go back on them and continue his participation in politics.
• Keeping al-Sadr onside is an important act for the Iraqi gov't, given that a large Shia paramilitary force remains under his control. However, his forces engaged in the long-running insurgency against the US presence in Iraq from 2003 onwards, creating significant difficulties between the Iraqi gov't and the US once his party was included in the governing coalition.
• In the wider regional context, should Al-Kadhimi's gov't collapse or al-Sadr's withdrawal lead to an increase in political instability it could have knock-on effects elsewhere. The continued fight against a weakened Islamic State remains a key MENA priority for the US and its allies such as Turkey. A more unstable Iraq potentially offers IS a greater base of operations to work in, something that the relatively stable Iraqi gov't had denied to the group in recent years.