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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORGES BANK
Looking at the breakdown of the policy rate path revisions, all components other than the exchange rate contributed to the upward revisions in late 2024, 2025 and 2026.
- In Q1 2025, domestic demand had a +13bps contribution. This is a little higher than we had expected coming into the decision, especially after domestic demand’s large upward contribution in last quarter’s MPR as well.
- Prices and wages contributed +7bps. 2024 wages are projected in line with the wage norm struck by unions, at 5.2% Y/Y (vs 4.9% prior).
- CPI-ATE projections were revised a little lower in 2024, but higher in 2025/2026 as economic activity continues to recover.
- The negative contribution from the exchange rate (-2bps in Q1 2025 but -5bps in Q1 2026) comes as the I-44 index forecast was revised lower through 2025/2026 (indicating a stronger NOK).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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