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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
INDUSTRIALS SECTOR
Alstom (ALO FP), the French engineering firm, is one of the best performers in SXXP equity world today on better order news.
- The equity has halved in the last year but mgmt are giving good year-end updates to sell side (BBG reports) with >EUR4.5bn in Q3 orders indicated (ALO has Mar year-end so Q3 = calendar 4Q23). Company reported, last week, a EUR500m order for a Saudi tramway in Alula after a Dec-23 EUR900m contract win in Australia.
- Alstom issued a profit warning on 5-Oct-23 on weak cashflows and equity dropped as much as 30% at one point on the day. The equity value has recovered none of its pre-warning value and continued to underperform, even though forward earnings estimates have stablised (see image).
- In credit terms, ALOFP (rated Baa3[N]/NR/NR) is trading as one of most distressed of its peers (see image for its more liquid '26 bond relative) and the 5Y CDS is indicating 195bp (against peers on 82bp).
Stablising forward earnings vs. equity value continuing to erode
More liquid '26 bond indicating widest spread amongst peers
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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