US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Analyst Expectations Of Key CPI Sequential Drivers

• Lodging away from home (+ve): Lodging is for the most part seen firming in January, with an average of 0.5% (range -0.4% to +1.5%) after the -0.95% in Dec was the largest downside surprise of the report.
• Vehicle insurance (+ve): Seen increasing an average 0.6% M/M after the 0.4% in Dec. It’s a series that has seen sizeable swings in recent years, accelerating again from a trough of -0.1% M/M in Oct but having previously averaged 1.2% M/M through Jan-Sep 2024 and an even hotter 1.6% in 2023. It accounts for a non-trivial 4% of the core CPI basket and 11% of supercore, but doesn’t feed into core PCE.
• Airfares (-ve): There’s another wide range to airfare estimates (-1.2% to +1.5%) but they’re on average seen increasing 0.7% M/M for a much small boost than the surprisingly strong 3.9% in December. As always, any surprises here are likely to be faded with the PPI equivalent of note for core PCE tracking.
• Used cars (-ve): Seen unlikely to match December’s 1.2%, with estimates we’ve seen averaging 0.9% M/M (between 0.0-1.5%).
• Rents (marginal -ve): Owners’ equivalent rent and primary rents are expected to continue to hold their recent moderation to a 0.3% M/M rate. We see average estimates for OER of 0.31% (range 0.28-0.36) after 0.31% and primary rents at 0.28% (range 0.27-0.32) after 0.31%. 

• Non-core: Food (+ve): Seen accelerating to 0.4% M/M after 0.31% M/M in Dec. Food-at-home inflation has overtaken the more service-focused food-away-from-home category in three of the past four months of data to December. A serious bird flu outbreak is expected to be a factor in January’s print with egg prices up sharply.
• Energy (-ve): Energy prices are seen increasing 0.6% M/M (but with a wider range to estimates than usual) after the solid 2.6% M/M in Dec. Estimates have a little wider range than usual, possibly down to assumptions for how gas prices are passed through. 

See the full MNI US CPI Preview here.