Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
On the Statement: The 1st paragraph on economic conditions could be marked-to-market slightly, but analyst focus is predominantly on the Statement's forward guidance. Most expect the existing forward rate guidance to be retained: "In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate..."
- Possible changes include:
- "In determining the future path...” (BNP Paribas)
- "in determining whether additional policy firming may be appropriate"(BNP Paribas/Goldman Sachs)
- altered to emphasize the FOMC's commitment to maintain a sufficiently restrictive stance (BofA)
- “determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate” (Citi)
- to add “any”: “in determining the extent of any additional policy firming…" (NatWest)
- to state the FOMC is “determining if additional policy firming may be appropriate” (Nomura)
- more tightening “might” instead of “may” be appropriate (Wrightson ICAP).
Multiple analysts think the November addition of "tighter financial conditions" could be amended (Barclays, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan). For instance it could say "tight" financial conditions (to reflect the fact that tightness has in fact pulled back from the extremes seen around the Nov 1 meeting) or removed altogether. JPMorgan writes that if removed, it would be interpreted "somewhat hawkishly" by markets.
Source: November FOMC Statement
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.