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Analyst Previews For Labour Report, 0830ET

CANADA
  • Bloomberg consensus sees jobs growth slowing from 39.8k in May to 22.5k in June with the u/e holding at a record low of 5.1%.
  • CIBC: Jobs growth of +25k, lukewarm due to ongoing recruitment difficulties and potentially some cooling in construction and real estate. With no change in the participation rate, the u/e rate would stay at 5.1%. Base effects from late spring 2021 recruiting of low wage workers should see wage growth top 5% Y/Y.
  • RBC: Jobs growth of +15k on dwindling supply of workers rather than lack of demand. Job openings edged lower but are still 70% above pre-pandemic levels whilst the u/e rate should hold at 5.1%. Wage growth probably accelerated again as businesses compete for fewer workers.
  • Scotia: Jobs growth of +20k in June, supported by Covid restrictions continuing to ease and local business conditions improving in most parts of the country between survey reference weeks.
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