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Analyst Takeaways On CAD Employment Data

CANADA
CIBC and TD stick to rate views, Scotia caution excessive confidence in rate cuts this summer.
  • CIBC: Employment growth may not be able to match that of the working population for much longer, which should see the u/e rate rise modestly in 2H22, easing some of the wage pressures that remain in place and enabling the BoC to gradually cut interest rates in 2024.
  • Scotia: Since the start of last year, consensus has underestimated cumulative job growth by a cumulative 330–340k depending upon whether we go with initials or revisions. Even pointing to the balance that’s missing in the debate is worthwhile information relative to the overly confident markets that are pricing rate cuts this summer.
  • TD: Even with the slight dip in the 6m trend and full-time employment, this is still a hawkish report that will do little to calm any nerves at the BoC. Today’s report will not be enough to tip the scales towards further tightening, but it also does not provide much evidence that current rates are sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation all the way back to 2%.
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