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Analyst Takes On Retail Sales

CANADA
  • BMO: The Canadian consumer looks to be losing some wind beneath its wings in the face of still-elevated inflation. Advance figures for June suggest consumer spending could take a meaningful hit to close out Q2, setting the stage for weaker momentum in the second half of the year.
  • CIBC: While overall GDP in Q2 is still tracking close to the 1.5% BoC MPR forecast, today's data suggest that consumer spending likely wasn't a significant driver of that growth, even accounting for growth in services spending. Industry data showing strength in areas such as manufacturing and wholesale suggest that inventory accumulation or business investment may be more significant contributors, which wouldn’t be bad news from an inflation point of view.
  • TD: Q2 real consumer spending is now tracking just slightly below 1.0% annualized. The "greater persistence of excess demand" remains a challenge for the BoC. The Bank expects that household consumption will slow over the course of next year as additional hikes work its way through the economy. Today's reading is evidence that this slowdown is materializing. Still, consumers have financial resources in the form of excess savings, so the path to moderation may not be a smooth one. For now, we expect that monetary policy will remain restrictive until after 1Q24.
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