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Analyst Views On April CPI Inflation

INDIA
  • The slight moderation in April CPI inflation was driven by further deflation in the fuel and light component (-4.2% y/y), which offset a pick-up in food inflation to 7.9% y/y. Core inflation remained soft, with most measures below 4% y/y and sequential momentum below the long-term average.
  • Pantheon expect the headline rate to fall sharply below the RBI’s 4% target in July, when favourable food-price base effects kick in. With Q1 GDP also set to disappoint, in their view, they stick with their belief that an MPC rate cut in August remains possible. Crucially, core inflation remains historically subdued, with their estimate of the unofficial measure unchanged at 3.2% y/y in April.
  • HSBC do not expect the RBI to embark on any easing soon, given the recent repricing on Fed rate cuts. In the June meeting, they expect the MPC members to retain their policy stance. While HSBC believe imported disinflation is likely to keep core inflation in check, the recent uptick in PMI manufacturing prices needs to be closely watched. Food inflation also remains a concern, in their view.
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