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Analyst Views on Employment Data

CANADA
  • *TD Securities look for the April hiring surge to give way to softer labour market conditions in May with 15k jobs added as the unemployment rate climbs 0.2pp to 6.3%, both relatively negative assumptions considering the median Bloomberg surveys. TD note that Canadian employment data has a history of mean-reversion after large gains, which raises the bar for another above-trend performance in May. Softer wage growth should add to the more dovish tone, with AHE for permanent workers forecast to slow 0.1pp to 4.7% y/y.
  • *CIBC: Canada’s labour market likely continued to gradually loosen in May, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.2% on a 20K increase in jobs. An easing in job creation would be in line with sluggish domestic demand towards the end of the first quarter and the more reliable payrolls survey of employment that is tracking weaker over the past twelve months, as well as the increase in business bankruptcies seen so far this year. Wage growth for permanent employees likely remained around the 4.8% y/y pace seen in April.
    • The unemployment rate is likely close to peaking as lower interest rates will put a floor under demand and labour market activity in the months ahead.
  • *Scotiabank have estimated a rise of 30k with a slight up-tick in the unemployment rate to 6.2%. Wage growth may accelerate again after a mild soft patch in April (+0.1% m/m SA) along a volatile trend.
    • What this estimate is mainly banking on is the continued filling of vacancies by very rapid population growth. That could be a particularly powerful effect into the summer job market.
    • Interestingly, the massive surge of temporary/non-permanent residents in the 15–24 category is a standing army of folks willing to work in seasonal roles across sectors like accommodation and food services.
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