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Analyst Views On July CPI Data

MEXICO
  • Goldman Sachs notes that core-goods inflation remains low and shows no visible signs of MXN weakness pass-through, but services inflation remains sticky at 5.2% y/y. The recent rise in inflation has been driven by a major shock to non-core perishable food and rising energy prices, but the food shock began to reverse in H2 July, a process that GS expect to continue through year-end. The recent fall in oil prices will also help ease non-core price pressures, although renewed MXN depreciation may offset this.
  • Meanwhile, HSBC do not think this is a game changer for the inflation outlook. The miss was related to core prices, but it was a small one. Overall, H2 July results confirm that most of the recent upside price pressure is explained by the non-core category and the bi-weekly data today suggest that the annual headline inflation peak could have occurred in H1 July. HSBC expect core disinflation to continue in the coming months and still see a 25bp Banxico cut later today, although recent market vol is a risk to their view.
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