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Analyst Views On March GDP Data

PERU
  • The 0.3% y/y decline in economic activity in March means that the economy looks to have grown by 0.5% q/q (sa) and 1.4% y/y in the first quarter. In sequential terms, real GDP declined by 0.3% m/m (sa) in March, following the +0.9% m/m gain in February, driven by weakness in mining, electricity and construction activity, which offset a pick-up in manufacturing.
  • Goldman Sachs note that the annual figures were impacted by calendar effects due to the Easter holiday, which will reverse in April. Beyond that, they expect positive but below-trend growth in the remainder of the year. GS expect tight financial conditions, weak business sentiment and poor governability conditions to weigh on activity, especially soft private investment dynamics.
  • JP Morgan says the March data confirm the above-potential sequential performance in Q1, but leave a negative carryover for Q2. JPM expect rate cuts to help some sectors regain momentum ahead, such as construction and some services. A moderate El Niño and supportive terms of trade will also help. They expect Q2 growth to moderate to 2.8% q/q ar, with full-year growth at 2.8%.
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