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Analyst Views Post-September MPC Meeting - May-22 first hike (2/4)

BOE
Goldman SachsRisks skewed to "earlier liftoff" but base case unch: first 15bp hike in May22 then 25bp more in each of Q4-22, Q2-23, Q4-23 with Bank Rate on hold and active gilt sales in 2024.
RBCContinue to expect 15bp in May22 and 25bp in Nov22 with a "view is that a 2021 Bank Rate hike remains unlikely" with post-furlough labour market reports only out in Dec.
HSBC15bp in May22 and 25bp in Nov22 still expected but the risks "have risen in favour of an earlier move" although "e still think February is the earliest likely date for a move."
UBSContinue to expect 15bp hike in May22 with further 25bp in Feb23 with the risk skewed towards more hikes" if inflation turns out to be more persistent than exp.

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