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|TD Securities||Assuming "smooth conclusion" of furlough, expect 15bp hike in Aug22 and 25bp hike in Nov22 which will trigger an "organic reduction" in the BOE balance sheet.|
|Berenberg||Expect two hikes in 2022: 15bp hike in Aug22 and 25bp hike in Dec22. "However, the risks to this call are increasingly tilting towards a hike as soon as May."|
|Nomura||View unch: first hike Aug22 with further hikes in Feb23 and Nov23. " Fully conscious of the risk" and that stronger costs and prices lead MPC "to act far earlier than we foresee."|
|Morgan Stanley||Base case: First 15bp hike Aug22 as UnE rises to 5.1%, weaker wage pressure, withdrawal of Covid support and Apr22 NIC increase. BOE forecasts "consistent with 1H22 hike."|
|Société Générale||Continue to see first 15bp hike in Q3-22. "The key [to timing of the first hike] lies in the labour market in which we see only a temporary strengthening of wage growth"|