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Needle Still Points South

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Yields Bounce as Equities Make New Monthly Highs

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Heading North

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Bull Rally Accelerates

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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

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TD Securities Assuming "smooth conclusion" of furlough, expect 15bp hike in Aug22 and 25bp hike in Nov22 which will trigger an "organic reduction" in the BOE balance sheet.
Berenberg Expect two hikes in 2022: 15bp hike in Aug22 and 25bp hike in Dec22. "However, the risks to this call are increasingly tilting towards a hike as soon as May."
Nomura View unch: first hike Aug22 with further hikes in Feb23 and Nov23. " Fully conscious of the risk" and that stronger costs and prices lead MPC "to act far earlier than we foresee."
Morgan Stanley Base case: First 15bp hike Aug22 as UnE rises to 5.1%, weaker wage pressure, withdrawal of Covid support and Apr22 NIC increase. BOE forecasts "consistent with 1H22 hike."
Société Générale Continue to see first 15bp hike in Q3-22. "The key [to timing of the first hike] lies in the labour market in which we see only a temporary strengthening of wage growth"