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Analysts At Odds With Market On BoC Rate Cuts

CANADA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets Bank of Canada Market News
  • The Bloomberg survey of analysts has an unchanged BoC rate profile for 2024 meetings.
  • The median still sees a first 25bp cut to 4.75% at the next meeting on Jun 5 before pausing in July and then cutting in Sept, Oct and Dec for 100bps over the year. That’s in firm contrast to the 64bp of cuts showing for 2024 CORRA futures, partly dragged higher by strong US data and hawkish Fedspeak.
  • The survey of quarterly estimates is across a wider sample of analysts, echoing that profile to 4% for end-2024 but now tilts to a slightly faster cutting profile in mid-2025 – see table.
  • Note that this Bloomberg survey was held through Apr 12-18, and so possibly doesn't fully capture the notably softer than expected CAD CPI on Apr 16, but is far more timely than the BoC’s analyst survey also released today covering Mar 7-15.
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  • The Bloomberg survey of analysts has an unchanged BoC rate profile for 2024 meetings.
  • The median still sees a first 25bp cut to 4.75% at the next meeting on Jun 5 before pausing in July and then cutting in Sept, Oct and Dec for 100bps over the year. That’s in firm contrast to the 64bp of cuts showing for 2024 CORRA futures, partly dragged higher by strong US data and hawkish Fedspeak.
  • The survey of quarterly estimates is across a wider sample of analysts, echoing that profile to 4% for end-2024 but now tilts to a slightly faster cutting profile in mid-2025 – see table.
  • Note that this Bloomberg survey was held through Apr 12-18, and so possibly doesn't fully capture the notably softer than expected CAD CPI on Apr 16, but is far more timely than the BoC’s analyst survey also released today covering Mar 7-15.