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Analysts Expect 25bp Cut In June, Banxico’s Borja Flags Sticky Service Prices

MEXICO
  • The latest Banamex economist survey showed that analysts expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25bp at the June MPC meeting, following the pause earlier this month. The policy rate is still expected to reach 10% by the end of this year, but the end-2025 estimate was raised slightly to 7.88%, from 7.75%. The 2024 year-end CPI inflation estimate was also raised by 4bp to 4.21%.
  • Separately, Deputy Governor Galia Borja said at an event yesterday that service prices remain one of the main risk factors for reducing inflation to the 3% target. Service prices have not yet shown a downward trajectory and have remained at around 5% y/y since March 2023, she said.
  • No macro data are due today, with attention turning to tomorrow’s raft of releases including March economic activity, final Q1 GDP and bi-monthly CPI inflation for the first half of May. Banxico will also release the minutes to its recent MPC meeting on Thursday.
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