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Analysts Expect First Banxico Cut In March, Retail Sales Data Due

MEXICO
  • Ahead of Thursday’s Banxico minutes, the latest Citibanamex survey revealed that analysts expect the central bank to start its easing cycle next month, with a 25bp move to 11.0%. The year-end policy rate forecast was unchanged at 9.5% and the end 2025 forecast was held at 7.5%. On the inflation front, analysts raised their forecast for 2024 year-end to 4.20%, from 4.08%, but the end 2025 CPI forecast was trimmed by 5bp to 3.70%. The 2024 GDP growth estimate was unchanged at 2.4%, while the 2025 GDP forecast was cut by 10bp to 1.9%.
  • On USDMXN, analysts’ year-end forecast was unchanged at 18.50. Having pieced the 17.00 level yesterday, USDMXN retraced to end the session within its recent 17.03-17.08 range. Further sustained weakness in USDMXN would highlight key support and the bear trigger at 16.7852, the Jan 8 low. However, we note that fiscal uncertainty is lingering in the background which could have the potential to test the continued resilience of the peso.
  • Data wise, December retail sales data will be released at 1200GMT (0700ET), with analysts expecting the annual growth rate to have moderated to 2.4% y/y, from 2.7% previously. Nominal wages for January may also cross.
    • Dec. Retail Sales MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
    • Dec. Retail Sales YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.7%
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