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Analysts Flag Further Upside Risks To Rate Path

CANADA

A further wrap across the spectrum of sellside analysts after yesterday’s CPI shows reluctance to change newly revised rate calls. Upside risks are flagged though, notably GS seeing significant risk of a 75bp hike in either June or July. BoC’s Macklem is set to speak to the House finance committee on Monday (Apr 25).

  • RBC: No change for a below consensus RBC, BoC to hike to 2% by Oct.
  • BMO: The broad-based nature of the increase in inflation is most disconcerting but still expect 50bp in June and July before 25bp every other meeting until above 2.5% in early 2023 (2.25% end-22).
  • TD: Tracking Q2 CPI ~0.5pp above the April MPR which helps to cement the case for another 50bp hike in June and increases the likelihood of 50bp hikes into Q3 (they previously saw 50bp in June then 25bp per meeting to 2.5% end-22).
  • GS: Significant risk of a 75bp hike in either June or July although keep to 50bp hikes in Jun, Jul and Sep (on the way to a top of consensus 3% by end-22).
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