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Analysts In Line With Market For First BoC Cut, More Aggressive Further Out

CANADA
  • Bloomberg has released its analyst survey taken Nov 17-22, with responses likely landing either side of CAD CPI on Nov 21 (which saw better progress with the preferred core measures slowing to 3% annualized on a three-month basis).
  • The meeting-specific survey saw a marginal pulling forward of cut expecting, with the median for the first cut to 4.75% landing in Jun’24 meeting vs the prior median split between 4.75% and 5%. The opposite is true later for Dec’24 which has pushed higher to a split between 4% and 4.25% vs 4.00% last month.
  • The quarterly survey has a better response rate, eyeing a 25bp cut in both Q2 and Q3 before 50bps of cuts per quarter in Q4 and 1Q25 - see below.
  • The findings are in line with BoC-dated OIS very nearly showing a first cut in June as priced, although the surveyed 100bps of cuts to year-end is steeper than the 80bps in 3-month CORRA on a Z3/Z4 basis to 4.22% and an implied yield of 3.56% for the Dec’25.

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