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Analysts Looking For Q3 GDP Growth A Little Over 1% Annualized

CANADA

GDP for Sep/Q3 on Tuesday is the first of the two key releases left before the BoC’s Dec 7 decision.

  • CIBC expect GDP growth of 1.3% Q/Q annualized from the 3.3% in Q2, falling below its long-run potential and with final domestic demand likely below 1% annualized.
  • They see it driven by a monthly increase of 0.1%, followed by 0.2-0.3% M/M in the October advance.
  • RBC see it on track to deliver a reading that’s just above their 1% (annualized) forecast for Q3, in a marked slowdown from the 3.2% average rate over 1H22 from the initial “reopening” rebound in economic activity as pandemic restrictions eased.
  • On the month, they see some upside risk to StatCan’s advance 0.1% M/M, with the surprise mostly driven by higher-than-expected growth in non-conventional oil and gas extraction. And growth in October probably remained positive.
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