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Analysts On Balance Lean To 25bp Cut In September But With Risks Of 50bps

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Further fallout from Friday’s payrolls release has seen Fed Funds implied rates continue to slide to more than fully price 50bp of cuts for September (currently 62bp lower than 5.33% effective) and even see non-trivial risk of an inter-meeting cut (FFQ4 has 7bp of cuts).
  • The latest dovish re-pricing goes beyond analyst views, with a majority of those reviewed below sticking to a 25bp cut, albeit some heavily leaning on the August NFP report as a potential risk of a 50bp cut in September.
  • Citi, JPM and NWM are currently most dovish with explicit calls for 50bp cuts, and JPM noted rationale for an intermeeting cut but judged Powell wouldn’t want to add more noise.

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