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Analysts On Dec Labour Report [2/2]

CANADA
  • GS: “Given softer activity data and continued progress on inflation (including in non-shelter core services) we continue to think that the BoC will deliver 25bps cuts at its April and June meeting, followed by quarterly cuts until reaching a terminal rate of 3.25% in 2025Q3.”
  • RBC: “The BoC will still be cautious about pivoting to rate cuts too quickly - and wage growth is still running above the pace historically consistent with their 2% inflation target. But our own expectation is that the economic backdrop is soft enough for inflation to continue to move lower and that the BoC will start to push the overnight rate lower around mid-year this year.”
  • TD: “It will be difficult for the BoC to draw any firm conclusions given the noisy tone of today's report, but we expect the Bank to view the sharp acceleration in LFS wages with a few grains of salt, given the large divergence against alternative measures of wage growth. [..] Our broader bias here is still for Canadian investors to be more sensitive to downside surprises than positive ones, as investors appear eager to embrace a more aggressive easing profile in Canada. With that in mind, 2s5s and 2s10s look too inverted.”
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