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Analysts On Retail Sales

CANADA
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  • BMO: “Consumer spending continues to struggle with the impact of past rate hikes and, while sales volumes are fully retrenching, one has to view these trends as sluggish when the country is cranking out historic population growth. That said, the economy still look on pace to post decent growth of around 0.2%-to-0.4% in February (the initial flash estimate was +0.4%), but we’ll see how March fares. So far, the early read on retail and an even softer early look at manufacturing this morning (-2.8%) suggest some softness. All in this data flow should keep a June BoC rate cut on the table, inflation willing.”
  • CIBC: “Real goods spending for the quarter a whole still looks healthy, but that reflects the boost to activity at the turn of the year from mild winter weather. Momentum has clearly waned since then, and spending will remain under pressure with the unemployment rate rising and mortgages continuing to renew at higher interest rates. As a result, the BoC will likely start trimming interest rates in June.”
  • National: “Retail spending is set to contribute to growth in the first quarter of the year following two months of data. That being said, per capita retail spending remains tame considering record high population growth in Q1. As monetary policy remains restrictive it will continue to have an impact on the consumer with a lag (especially considering the interest payment shock)
  • TD: “Today's decline in retail sales for February was more widespread than what we saw in January, reflecting weaker-than-expected performance in core measures and underscoring the challenges facing consumers amid rising costs of living and financing.” However their internal credit and debit spend data for March keep their real consumption tracker in the 2.8-3% range in 1Q24. "Relatively solid spending momentum has been supported by a still-sizeable excess deposits, robust population growth and a wealth effect. However, with the labour market losing steam, income growth is likely to moderate, dictating a slower pace of spending.”
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  • BMO: “Consumer spending continues to struggle with the impact of past rate hikes and, while sales volumes are fully retrenching, one has to view these trends as sluggish when the country is cranking out historic population growth. That said, the economy still look on pace to post decent growth of around 0.2%-to-0.4% in February (the initial flash estimate was +0.4%), but we’ll see how March fares. So far, the early read on retail and an even softer early look at manufacturing this morning (-2.8%) suggest some softness. All in this data flow should keep a June BoC rate cut on the table, inflation willing.”
  • CIBC: “Real goods spending for the quarter a whole still looks healthy, but that reflects the boost to activity at the turn of the year from mild winter weather. Momentum has clearly waned since then, and spending will remain under pressure with the unemployment rate rising and mortgages continuing to renew at higher interest rates. As a result, the BoC will likely start trimming interest rates in June.”
  • National: “Retail spending is set to contribute to growth in the first quarter of the year following two months of data. That being said, per capita retail spending remains tame considering record high population growth in Q1. As monetary policy remains restrictive it will continue to have an impact on the consumer with a lag (especially considering the interest payment shock)
  • TD: “Today's decline in retail sales for February was more widespread than what we saw in January, reflecting weaker-than-expected performance in core measures and underscoring the challenges facing consumers amid rising costs of living and financing.” However their internal credit and debit spend data for March keep their real consumption tracker in the 2.8-3% range in 1Q24. "Relatively solid spending momentum has been supported by a still-sizeable excess deposits, robust population growth and a wealth effect. However, with the labour market losing steam, income growth is likely to moderate, dictating a slower pace of spending.”