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Analysts Post BoC Surveys

CANADA
  • BMO: The BoC’s aggressive rate hikes through 2022 have clearly weighed on economic sentiment among both businesses and consumers. However, still-elevated inflation expectations will keep the Bank on alert. Consistent with our call of a 25bp hike next week before holding through the remainder of 2023.
  • CIBC: With no worsening of the situation on the expectations front, it leaves the BoC with the space to focus on incoming data in determining the path for interest rates. Expect a final 25bp hike next week unless tomorrow's CPI and/or Friday's retail trade data provided a "big" surprise.
  • RBC: We continue to expect a 25bp hike on Jan 25, but a pause is not entirely off the table given the relatively dovish undertone from today’s survey.
  • TD: Though the outlook had weakened, recent economic data had shown incredible resiliency. This set the stage for a final 25bp before the BoC moved to the sidelines to observe the full effect of its historic rate hiking cycle on the economy.
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