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Analysts Raising Rate Forecasts Post-FOMC

FED

From our Fed Review publication out earlier - a few upward revisions to analyst rate hike expectations following Wednesday's FOMC:

  • Barclays: Now expect 50bp Dec hike (was 75bp), but now see a “somewhat more drawn out hiking cycle”. Still see 50bp hike in Feb, but now also see 25bp in Mar, with terminal rate 5.00-5.25%. Three 25bp cuts in late 2023.
  • CIBC: Raised terminal rate by 25bp to 4.50-4.75%.Citi: Raised terminal rate to 5.25-5.50%: 50bp hike Dec and Feb, 25bp Mar, 25bp May.
  • Danske: Now see a 50bp hike in February, in addition to the 75bp they saw in Dec – terminal 5.00-5.25%.
  • RBC: Upping terminal to 5.25% from 4.75%, with Feb 50bp (was 25bp) and an additional 25bp in March.
  • TD: Upping terminal rate to 5.25-5.50% from 4.75-5.00%. 50bp hikes in Dec and Feb, 25bp in Mar and May.
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