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Analysts Say BCCh IPoM Consistent With Year-End Policy Rate Around 5.50%

CHILE
  • No data are due today, with the market closed for the Indigenous’ Peoples Day holiday. Looking ahead, May PPI figures are due to be released next Monday, while April activity data, including retail sales, IP and copper production will be published on June 28.
  • Yesterday, the BCCh’s June Monetary Policy Report revealed an upward revision to the mid-point of 2024 GDP and meaningful upgrades to the inflation outlook. The H2 2024 output gap was also revised higher to +0.5%, from 0%, while the 2025 output gap was raised to +0.3%, from -0.1%.
  • Given the higher inflation outlook and risk of further FX pass-through, JP Morgan revise their year-end policy rate forecast 25bp higher, to 5.5%. After that, they see the policy rate converging to 4.75% by Dec’25. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs note that the central scenario outlined in the IPoM is broadly consistent with a policy rate around 5.50% by year end-2024 and 4.50% by end-2025.
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