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Analysts See Further Climb In U/E Rate Despite Jobs Rebound

CANADA DATA
  • Tomorrow’s employment report for July will be closely watched after the BoC put particular emphasis on excess supply and signs of slack in the labour market at its June 24 decision as part of broadly dovish commentary.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees employment growth of 25k after a disappointing -1k in Jun, the unemployment rate increasing 0.1pp to 6.5% as it continues a strong trend higher and notably a cooling in average hourly wage growth to 4.8% Y/Y after recent acceleration to 5.6%.
  • See the distribution of Canada-based analysts below, with comments from those at the higher, middle and lower end of consensus for jobs.

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