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Analysts Split on Today's SARB Decision

SOUTH AFRICA

The South African Reserve Bank are seen cutting rates by 25bps to 3.25%, new alltime lows, by only a small majority of analysts. Just under half of those surveyed see no change in rates today, with sell-side institutions divided on whether the below-forecast Q2 GDP data will have been sufficient to prompt further easing today.

It's likely the Bank will be forced to downgrade their economic forecasts today given Q2 GDP came in below forecast at -51% on an annualized basis. Nonetheless, yesterday's announcement from President Ramaphosa that the country was shifting to Alert Level 1 may mean the economy recovers faster than forecast in H2 this year.

ZAR remains close to multi-month highs vs. the USD, with 16.2087 the first support in USD/ZAR (yesterday's multi-month low), with the 200-dma cutting in as first upside target at 16.5785.

For reference, July's rate cut announcement crossed during the press conference at 1408BST/0908ET.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
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