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Analysts Warn On Potentially Soft Handoff To Q3 Growth [2/2]

CANADA
  • CIBC: “June’s advance estimate could show a slight decline in GDP, reflecting the drop in manufacturing sales, the deterioration in the labour market, and the decline in retail sales, although some of that may be temporary due to a software outage that held back car sales. […] Q2 GDP is likely to come in at roughly 1 ½ % annualized, in line with the BoC’s latest MPR. We are less optimistic on Q3 growth than the BoC, however, given the anticipated weak handoff to the quarter.”
  • RBC: “In June, GDP growth likely weakened further, dipping to an outright contraction. Total hours worked fell by 0.6%, and manufacturing sales contracted by 2.6%. Overall, those monthly readings should leave the Q2 quarterly GDP at an annualized 1.5% from Q1. That’s in line with our tracking of 1.4% and the BoC’s forecast of 1.5% in their latest July MPR and should point to another decline in output per-capita in Q2 once the increase in population is accounted for.”
  • Scotia: “June faces more downside risk [than May] based on limited readings such as a drop in hours worked. Growth is probably tracking just under 2% q/q SAAR in Q2 using the monthly GDP estimates after expanding by 2.5% in Q1”
  • TD: “We look for new flash estimates to show a flat print for June, which if realized would help to contain Q2 GDP tracking and provide a much weaker handoff to Q3 growth”
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