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US TSYS/2Y: And BMO's Aaron Kohli said on 11:30am ET 2Y auction that "foreign
demand showed a small uptick in October making us slightly more optimistic.
Historically, we have seen foreign demand fall in September-October then begin
to trend up as we get into November."
- He added "2s have continued to cheapen vs. OIS throughout Nov. and are on the
cheaper end of recent history" and "shd richen as we head into the debt ceiling
debate in early Dec."
- He adds 2Y auction stats "offer only a slight positive bias for November
2-year auctions with eight of the last 14 stopping through, 5 tailing and one
stopping on the screws." Plus "outright stats are slightly positive with the
last 6 auctions producing an average result of 0.2 bp through."
- But he noted on 2Y auction disadvantagesf: "the biggest risk facing the 2-year
sector is the continued hawkish Fed rhetoric that keeps the front-end under
pressure. In addition, any optimism around the passage of the Republican tax
bill (voting is expected later this week) could help the risk-on move and keep
the front-end cheapening."