Anne Karina Asbjorn at Nomura assesses the....>

ITALY: Anne Karina Asbjorn at Nomura assesses the field in approaching

elections. "The Democrats (PD - current ruling party) and the Five Star Movement

(5SM) are polling around 28%, which means next year's election will almost

certainly result in a hung parliament".

- She also points out that a coalition of Forza Italia, the Northern League and

the far-right Brothers of Italy (BoI) may have a decent chance of forming a

government as it is polling around 35%.

- Silvio Berlusconi is attempting to re-enter Italian politics although must

wait until (probably) November before the European Court of Human Rights passes

judgement on his barring of public office until 2019. Yet, he has put forward a

pro-European agenda of "more Europe, not less".

- Additionally, the 5SM and Northern League have lessened anti-EU rhetoric. 

- Nomura see the 5SM as having a reasonable chance of gaining power. Luigi di

Maio has put himself forward as Prime Ministerial candidate for 5SM. Remember

that 5SM was originally established as an anti-establishment party without a

leader.