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ITALY: Anne Karina Asbjorn at Nomura assesses the field in approaching
elections. "The Democrats (PD - current ruling party) and the Five Star Movement
(5SM) are polling around 28%, which means next year's election will almost
certainly result in a hung parliament".
- She also points out that a coalition of Forza Italia, the Northern League and
the far-right Brothers of Italy (BoI) may have a decent chance of forming a
government as it is polling around 35%.
- Silvio Berlusconi is attempting to re-enter Italian politics although must
wait until (probably) November before the European Court of Human Rights passes
judgement on his barring of public office until 2019. Yet, he has put forward a
pro-European agenda of "more Europe, not less".
- Additionally, the 5SM and Northern League have lessened anti-EU rhetoric.
- Nomura see the 5SM as having a reasonable chance of gaining power. Luigi di
Maio has put himself forward as Prime Ministerial candidate for 5SM. Remember
that 5SM was originally established as an anti-establishment party without a