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MNI ASIA PAC Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key events and macro themes for the Asia Pac region
USCentral Bank NewsHomepageFederal ReserveAPACJapanAustraliaSouth KoreaStoryIndiaChinaNorth AmericaMarkets

MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN
  • Japan Capex data was positive this week, but wages were close to expectations. Real household spending was still negative but better than forecast. BoJ pricing has moderated from recent highs, with uncertainty remaining ahead of the Dec policy meeting. 
     
  • AUSTRALIA
  • Australian Q3 GDP was weaker than market forecasts. The economy expanded +0.3%q/q against a 0.5% forecast with public demand and net exports making positive contributions. In y/y terms we were up 0.8%, against a 1.1% forecast and prior of 1.0%.
  • Productivity growth remained weak in Q3, which is likely to continue concerning the RBA but the outcome is consistent with its -1.0% y/y Q4 2024 projection.
  • Data for October are tentatively implying a pickup in activity in Q4 with stronger household spending, exports and building approvals. 
     
  • NEW ZEALAND
  • NZ recorded its third straight quarterly rise in the merchandise terms of trade in Q3. It rose 2.4% q/q to be up 1.2% y/y, the first positive annual rate since Q1 2022, after +2.1% q/q and -1.7% y/y in Q2, while services fell 0.9% q/q and 5.7% y/y.
     
  • SHORT TERM RATES
  • $-bloc markets are softer over the past week, ahead of tonight’s US payrolls print. 

    CHINA 
  • China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in November, from 50.1 in October, above the 50 mark for the second month. Signs are filtering through that the significant stimulus policies are continuing to take effect. The non-manufacturing PMI however declined to 50.0 (from 50.2).
  • The 10yr bond yield edged sub 2.00% 
     
  • SOUTH KOREA
  • A brief period of martial law in South Korea rattled markets, but follow through has been limited, with the regulators and BoK acting quick to contain the fallout. President Yoon has rapidly lost domestic support. 
     
  • ASIA
  • The ASEAN manufacturing sector continued to experience only moderate growth in November although slightly stronger than in October. The region is mixed though with Indonesia and Malaysia continuing to contract but the Philippines and Vietnam growing and Thailand steady. In India, the RBI held rates steady as expected, but injected liquidity.
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
  • Taiwan and India inflows continue, outflows have been seen in South Korea post the brief martial law period. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (December 6 2024).pdf

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MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN
  • Japan Capex data was positive this week, but wages were close to expectations. Real household spending was still negative but better than forecast. BoJ pricing has moderated from recent highs, with uncertainty remaining ahead of the Dec policy meeting. 
     
  • AUSTRALIA
  • Australian Q3 GDP was weaker than market forecasts. The economy expanded +0.3%q/q against a 0.5% forecast with public demand and net exports making positive contributions. In y/y terms we were up 0.8%, against a 1.1% forecast and prior of 1.0%.
  • Productivity growth remained weak in Q3, which is likely to continue concerning the RBA but the outcome is consistent with its -1.0% y/y Q4 2024 projection.
  • Data for October are tentatively implying a pickup in activity in Q4 with stronger household spending, exports and building approvals. 
     
  • NEW ZEALAND
  • NZ recorded its third straight quarterly rise in the merchandise terms of trade in Q3. It rose 2.4% q/q to be up 1.2% y/y, the first positive annual rate since Q1 2022, after +2.1% q/q and -1.7% y/y in Q2, while services fell 0.9% q/q and 5.7% y/y.
     
  • SHORT TERM RATES
  • $-bloc markets are softer over the past week, ahead of tonight’s US payrolls print. 

    CHINA 
  • China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in November, from 50.1 in October, above the 50 mark for the second month. Signs are filtering through that the significant stimulus policies are continuing to take effect. The non-manufacturing PMI however declined to 50.0 (from 50.2).
  • The 10yr bond yield edged sub 2.00% 
     
  • SOUTH KOREA
  • A brief period of martial law in South Korea rattled markets, but follow through has been limited, with the regulators and BoK acting quick to contain the fallout. President Yoon has rapidly lost domestic support. 
     
  • ASIA
  • The ASEAN manufacturing sector continued to experience only moderate growth in November although slightly stronger than in October. The region is mixed though with Indonesia and Malaysia continuing to contract but the Philippines and Vietnam growing and Thailand steady. In India, the RBI held rates steady as expected, but injected liquidity.
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
  • Taiwan and India inflows continue, outflows have been seen in South Korea post the brief martial law period. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (December 6 2024).pdf