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Announcement Soon, 25bp Expected But Close Call

RBNZ

The RBNZ decision (see here) is due soon and is generally expected to be another 25bp hike bringing rates to 5.5%. There are a few economists who are expecting another 50bp move. But we believe that while it is a close call, the RBNZ can afford to step down to +25bp as inflation and inflation expectations are moving in the right direction and policy is now restrictive. With at least some tightening expected, the focus is going to be on the guidance and the updated forecasts, especially the OCR profile. It could show a higher peak with easing pushed out (market at 5.93%), thus signalling an extended cycle.

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