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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- Released with Friday's payrolls report, it's possible that some of the recent, particularly large volatility in the household measure of employment, unemployment and the labor force could be reduced by this month’s annual re-estimation of seasonal factors for the most recent five years.
- As Morgan Stanley note: “Household survey data will also include the annual re-estimation of seasonal factors. The changes to the unemployment rate that result are usually insignificant—perhaps a tenth of a percentage point up or down in a given month, with revisions netting to zero over the year. The report a month from now will include the benchmark revision to payrolls as well as new population controls for the household-survey data.”
- Citi on the potential impact of these revisions: “The repeat of a similar pattern in seasonally adjusted data in 2023 as in 2022 suggests some issues with seasonal adjustment and greater potential for revisions that would smooth through monthly fluctuations. This may imply stronger employment earlier in the year and softer employment in H2, although with a high degree of uncertainty. Revisions to seasonally adjusted 2022 data this time last year were minimal.”
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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