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Another Month With The BoC Seeing What It Needs To See

CANADA DATA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsCanada Bank of Canada Market News
  • The BoC said last week that “We are seeing what we need to see, but we need to see it for longer”, and it certainly saw that again in today’s latest CPI data for March.
  • The average of the trim and median at 2.95% Y/Y (cons 3.1) marked the first Y/Y dip into the 1-3% target band since Oct’21.
  • As above, the three-month rate slowed from 2.3% to 1.3% ar (cons would have been closer to 1.5) and the six-month rate took another step to 2.3% ar (-0.2pps). The latter ended last year at 3.6%.
  • Other metrics of note: CPIxFE at 1.9% over 3-mths and 2.7% over 6-mths, CPIX at just 0.8% over 3-mths and 1.6% over 6-mths.
  • Macklem and the Budget are still to come today, but should they pass without too many surprises this release could continue to pave the way for greater cut confidence. However, we still have another CPI report for April due before the June 5 meeting.
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  • The BoC said last week that “We are seeing what we need to see, but we need to see it for longer”, and it certainly saw that again in today’s latest CPI data for March.
  • The average of the trim and median at 2.95% Y/Y (cons 3.1) marked the first Y/Y dip into the 1-3% target band since Oct’21.
  • As above, the three-month rate slowed from 2.3% to 1.3% ar (cons would have been closer to 1.5) and the six-month rate took another step to 2.3% ar (-0.2pps). The latter ended last year at 3.6%.
  • Other metrics of note: CPIxFE at 1.9% over 3-mths and 2.7% over 6-mths, CPIX at just 0.8% over 3-mths and 1.6% over 6-mths.
  • Macklem and the Budget are still to come today, but should they pass without too many surprises this release could continue to pave the way for greater cut confidence. However, we still have another CPI report for April due before the June 5 meeting.