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Another Move Lower In Oil Allows Bonds To Extend Rally

BONDS
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Fresh weakness in crude oil markets continues to underpin bonds, with core 10-Year global FI futures hitting fresh session highs in recent trade and U.S. breakevens pulling lower.

  • Mar 25 high (111-13) in TY futures presents next resistance in that contract, while Bunds hover just below next resistance in the form of the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14-Jul 3 bear leg (132.51).
  • Front end outperformance seen in gilts (both on the curve and cross-market), with BoE pricing showing 50bp of ’24 cuts and continued softening in UK food price inflation noted.
  • Early Tuesday trade was dominated by the weakness in oil and European equities, while some also flagged potential policy readthrough from Trump’s VP selection as a background driver.
  • U.S. retail sales eyed, due in just under 40 minutes.
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Fresh weakness in crude oil markets continues to underpin bonds, with core 10-Year global FI futures hitting fresh session highs in recent trade and U.S. breakevens pulling lower.

  • Mar 25 high (111-13) in TY futures presents next resistance in that contract, while Bunds hover just below next resistance in the form of the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14-Jul 3 bear leg (132.51).
  • Front end outperformance seen in gilts (both on the curve and cross-market), with BoE pricing showing 50bp of ’24 cuts and continued softening in UK food price inflation noted.
  • Early Tuesday trade was dominated by the weakness in oil and European equities, while some also flagged potential policy readthrough from Trump’s VP selection as a background driver.
  • U.S. retail sales eyed, due in just under 40 minutes.