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Another NYT/Siena College Survey Flashes Warning For Biden

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A New York Times/Siena College poll has found Trump, “ahead by six percentage points among registered voters and three points among likely voters nationally. That’s his best result in a reputable national survey in months,” according to the Times.

  • The Times notes: “You have to go back to a CNN/SSRS poll in April to find something showing him ahead by six points with registered voters. (A Quinnipiac poll today found Trump up by four among registered voters.)”
  • Nate Cohen noted in analysis of the survey that the results are an outlier: “When outlier results come around, it’s generally better to look at the average of polls. As it happens, we released our poll averages for the cycle on Monday: Mr. Trump is ahead by one point over President Biden after including the latest Times/Siena poll. That’s a safer measure of where the race stands.”
  • Despite efforts from Cohen to control expectations, it is likely to send shockwaves through the Democratic Party, similar to a NYT survey of swing states in May which found a significant Trump lead across all swing states except Wisconsin. That survey foreshadowed a major Trump bounce across prediction markets.

Figure 1: Presidential Election Polling Comparison

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A New York Times/Siena College poll has found Trump, “ahead by six percentage points among registered voters and three points among likely voters nationally. That’s his best result in a reputable national survey in months,” according to the Times.

  • The Times notes: “You have to go back to a CNN/SSRS poll in April to find something showing him ahead by six points with registered voters. (A Quinnipiac poll today found Trump up by four among registered voters.)”
  • Nate Cohen noted in analysis of the survey that the results are an outlier: “When outlier results come around, it’s generally better to look at the average of polls. As it happens, we released our poll averages for the cycle on Monday: Mr. Trump is ahead by one point over President Biden after including the latest Times/Siena poll. That’s a safer measure of where the race stands.”
  • Despite efforts from Cohen to control expectations, it is likely to send shockwaves through the Democratic Party, similar to a NYT survey of swing states in May which found a significant Trump lead across all swing states except Wisconsin. That survey foreshadowed a major Trump bounce across prediction markets.

Figure 1: Presidential Election Polling Comparison

Keep reading...Show less