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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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A New York Times/Siena College poll has found Trump, “ahead by six percentage points among registered voters and three points among likely voters nationally. That’s his best result in a reputable national survey in months,” according to the Times.
- The Times notes: “You have to go back to a CNN/SSRS poll in April to find something showing him ahead by six points with registered voters. (A Quinnipiac poll today found Trump up by four among registered voters.)”
- Nate Cohen noted in analysis of the survey that the results are an outlier: “When outlier results come around, it’s generally better to look at the average of polls. As it happens, we released our poll averages for the cycle on Monday: Mr. Trump is ahead by one point over President Biden after including the latest Times/Siena poll. That’s a safer measure of where the race stands.”
- Despite efforts from Cohen to control expectations, it is likely to send shockwaves through the Democratic Party, similar to a NYT survey of swing states in May which found a significant Trump lead across all swing states except Wisconsin. That survey foreshadowed a major Trump bounce across prediction markets.
Figure 1: Presidential Election Polling Comparison
Source: New York Times/Siena CollegeWhy MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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