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Swiss Inflation Uptick Underlines SNB's Likely Negative Rate Exit

SWITZERLAND DATA
MNI (London)

SWISS AUG CPI +0.3% M/M (FCST +0.2%); JUL 0.0%

SWISS AUG CPI +3.5% Y/Y (FCST +3.4%); JUL 3.4%

  • Swiss CPI ticked up a further 0.1pp to +3.4% y/y in August, and accelerated by +0.3% m/m after remaining flat at 0.0% m/m in July.
  • Both readings are marginally higher than forecast, where Swiss inflation was expected to stall.
  • With core inflation reaching the SNB's threshold of +2.0% y/y in both July and August (and a series high for Switzerland), this underscores the need for further tightening by the SNB in upcoming months as inflation becomes more broad-based. The SNB is likely to exit negative rates at the September 22 meeting (the key policy rate was hiked to -0.25% from -0.75% back in June).
  • Food prices alone expanded by +1.0% m/m, whilst largely imported clothing was up by 3.5% m/m as imported inflation rises.

Source: Swiss Federal Statistic Office

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