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Answers To Areas Of Focus Pre-Minutes

FED
  • Guidance beyond July: Limited - “Many participants judged that expediting the removal of policy accommodation would leave the Committee well positioned later this year to assess the effects of policy firming and the extent to which economic developments warranted policy adjustments.”
  • Support for larger than 50bp?: No discussion shown
  • Terminal/moving beyond neutral: Limited - Participants “noted that a restrictive stance of policy may well become appropriate depending on the evolving economic outlook and the risks to the outlook”.
  • Recession and/or other risks: “Several participants commented on the challenges that monetary policy faced in restoring price stability while also maintaining strong labor market conditions.” Several officials flagged vulnerabilities in markets for Treasuries and commodities. A couple of policy makers “observed that the trading and risk-management practices of some key participants in commodities markets were not fully visible to regulatory authorities,” which could lead to “significant liquidity demands for large banks, broker-dealers, and their clients.”
  • QT clues/MBS sales timing: “A number of participants remarked that, after balance sheet runoff was well under way, it would be appropriate for the Committee to consider sales of agency MBS to enable suitable progress toward a longer-run SOMA portfolio composed primarily of Treasury securities. Any program of sales of agency MBS would be announced well in advance.”
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