Any Escalation On Lebanese Border Depends On Scale Of Hezbollah Attacks

Following on from reports of an anti-tank missile being fired towards an Israeli Defence Force (IDF) observation post on the border with Lebanon, the main question with regards to the scope for this fueling a wider escalation is likely to come in the form of who carried out the attack. Wires report that Hezbollah has stated that it has targeted an Israeli army post with guided missiles.

• This is not the first incident on the Israeli-Lebanese border during the current conflict. However, so far the attacks by both Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hezbollah have been seen as coming in solidarity with Hamas rather than as the launching of an all-out assault on Israel's northern border.
• If Hezbollah's attacks remain sporadic and largely contained to the border region then the incidents are unlikely to lead to a wider escalation. However, if Hezbollah uses the ongoing Hamas-Israel war to open a second front in the north of Israel then it could mean a significant widening of the conflict.
• Hezbollah is a much larger and more well-equipped fighting force in comparison to Hamas. A full-scale Hezbollah-Israel war would entail a significantly more widespread military operation on behalf of Israel, with fighting on two fronts in Gaza and the Lebanese border a risky prospect. The last Hezbollah-Israel war in 2006 saw at least 157 IDF servicemen killed and mass rocket attacks on Israel throughout the 34-day conflict.
• A conflict of this nature also risks drawing in both neighbouring Syria, but also Iran, which is the main backer of the Lebanese group.