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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
ANZ business confidence in April was down only slightly from March at -43.8 from -43.4, but remains more optimistic than the trough in December. The activity outlook however rose to -7.6 from -8.5, the best result since October but still lacklustre. The April results were fairly stable despite the unexpected 50bp RBNZ rate hike at the start of April. ANZ interprets the price data as moving as the RBNZ would have expected, moderating but still elevated. Thus another hike on May 24, in line with RBNZ forecasts, is possible.
- ANZ points out that cost expectations remain very high at 84.2, which could limit the downside to inflation going forward. Neither of these indicators is moving as the RBNZ would hope at this stage of the tightening cycle. On the other hand, pricing intentions moderated to 53.7 from 56.8, which are still high but the lowest since early 2021, and inflation expectations eased to 5.7% from 5.8%.
- Employment intentions rose to -2.4 from -4.6, the highest since October but the sixth consecutive negative. Wage rise expectations were already elevated and rose further in April to 87.2%, but down from 94% in mid-2022. Past wage settlements were almost unchanged at 6% and expectations for the next year moderated slightly to 4.7% from 4.8%, which is well off the peak in 2022.
- All sectors were pessimistic but retail and agriculture less so and construction and services more so.
NZ ANZ business survey price/cost components
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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