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ANZ expect "to see a stable.............>

NEW ZEALAND: ANZ expect "to see a stable unemployment rate at 4.3% in Q1. Labour
market data has been volatile in recent quarters; last quarter we saw a rise,
but the general trend has been a gradual tightening. But further improvement in
the near term seems unlikely with GDP growth subdued. Wage inflation is expected
to have firmed to 2.1% y/y, reflecting both previous tightening in the labour
market and minimum wage increases. A stable or slightly lower unemployment rate
should set the scene for the RBNZ to deliver a downward-sloping OCR track at the
May MPS, in line with our expectation for an August rate cut. A higher
unemployment rate and subdued wage inflation would add to the risk of a rate cut
as soon as May."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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