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NEW ZEALAND: ANZ note that "the combination of rising oil prices, a depreciating
NZD & lift in fuel tax has seen petrol prices at the pump hit record highs.
While we saw the taxes coming, we did not anticipate oil prices would rise as
sharply. Passing higher-than-exp. petrol prices through to our headline CPI
forecast lifts the q/q change by 0.1%pts in both Q3 & Q4 to 0.6% & 0.4%
respectively. That would see annual inflation hit 1.7% in Q3 & 2.0% in Q4, well
above the RBNZ Aug MPS forecast of 1.4% & 1.6%. From there, we expect headline
inflation to tick above the mid-point of the RBNZ's target band, hitting 2.2%
y/y in Q1 & Q2 next year, but only temporarily. We exp. the RBNZ will look
though the tradable inflation bump as a transitory shock. The RBNZ will be
focused on the persistent trend in inflation. As such, non-tradable & core
inflation, along with medium-term inflation expectations, will be more important
for assessing the underlying inflation pulse, even if headline inflation
surprises on the upside on account of higher tradable inflation. Unlike the
RBNZ, we are not forecasting a gradual and persistent rise in inflation over the
next years. We exp. annual inflation to moderate to 1.6% by end '20."