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KIWI: ANZ note that "the NZD has bounced off multi-year lows hit earlier in
September. An overbought USD, improved global risk sentiment, and better
domestic data have contributed to this retracement. Critically, the NZD failed
to push back over 67 US cents (a key pivot point, in our view), which suggests a
reasonable top is now in place. Domestically, our views have not changed much.
While strong Q2 GDP figures have all but removed the chance of an RBNZ interest
rate cut before the end of the year, forward-looking data is pointing to waning
growth momentum and should see the RBNZ remain cautious. We continue to see
non-trivial odds of a rate cut over 2019 as growth disappoints RBNZ
expectations. In addition, export commodity prices are still waning, with the
risk skewed towards this having further to run. As such, we retain a negative
view on NZD direction, particularly in combination with our cautious views on
cyclical currencies generally. Yet there are competing tensions in the near term
(a more fully priced USD, swings in risk sentiment, market positioning etc) that
are likely to mean choppier price action ahead. That will make picking the
timing to express directional views more pertinent."