ANZ note that "the NZD has bounced off.........>

KIWI: ANZ note that "the NZD has bounced off multi-year lows hit earlier in

September. An overbought USD, improved global risk sentiment, and better

domestic data have contributed to this retracement. Critically, the NZD failed

to push back over 67 US cents (a key pivot point, in our view), which suggests a

reasonable top is now in place. Domestically, our views have not changed much.

While strong Q2 GDP figures have all but removed the chance of an RBNZ interest

rate cut before the end of the year, forward-looking data is pointing to waning

growth momentum and should see the RBNZ remain cautious. We continue to see

non-trivial odds of a rate cut over 2019 as growth disappoints RBNZ

expectations. In addition, export commodity prices are still waning, with the

risk skewed towards this having further to run. As such, we retain a negative

view on NZD direction, particularly in combination with our cautious views on

cyclical currencies generally. Yet there are competing tensions in the near term

(a more fully priced USD, swings in risk sentiment, market positioning etc) that

are likely to mean choppier price action ahead. That will make picking the

timing to express directional views more pertinent."