NEWS
US (WSJ): Buy Now Before Tariffs Hit, Retailers Are Telling Shoppers
“Pre-Tariff Sale! This is not a drill,” declares a Facebook post from Finally Home Furnishings, urging customers to order now before prices “double.” The online furniture retailer is one of many businesses urging customers to buy now before President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs potentially raise costs—and prices. Others banging the tariff drum include companies selling outdoor gear, stickers, beauty products and more.
RUSSIA (MNI): Defence Minister Seen Deepening North Korea Relations
Defence Minister Belousov is meeting with his North Korean counterpart today, at which they are expected to discuss a further deepening and strengthening of their military partnership – a meeting that will be closely watched by South Korea, who have reportedly considered sending weaponry to Ukraine, a step that Moscow have warned would “fully destroy” relations.
CHINA (MNI): China Extends U.S. Import Tariff Exemption List
China has extended import tariff exemptions on certain U.S. commodities, imposed by Beijing to counter Washington's Section 301 measures, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council said on Friday.
CHINA/EUROPE (MNI): Beijing To Court Closer EU Ties Under Trump
Beijing will look to use dissatisfaction with U.S. trade policies next year to revive EU economic ties, but Brussels will likely pushback strongly due to its view of China as a strategic rival and its ties to Russia, policy and trade advisors told MNI.
ISRAEL/LEBANON (BBG): Israel, Lebanon Trade Claims of Cease-Fire Breach as Truce Holds
Israel and Lebanon traded accusations of violating a cease-fire deal that’s brought more than a year of fighting to a halt, though the truce appeared to be holding. The Lebanese army said Israel breached the accord multiple times over the past two days through “aerial violations and the targeting of Lebanese territories with various weapons,” according to a statement on X.
EUROPE (MNI): 1-Year Ahead Expectations Rise More Than Expected
The ECB's CES survey showed the 1-year ahead reading firmed a tenth to 2.5% Y/Y in October (vs 2.3% consensus, 2.4% prior), after printing the lowest reading since September 2021 last month. However, excluding September's reading it is still lower than any other month since September 2021. Meanwhile, the 3-years ahead expectation came in line with expectations remaining stable at 2.1% Y/Y - the lowest reading since February 2022 for the second successive month.
FRANCE (MNI): Le Pen Sets 2 Dec Deadline For PM To Respond To 4 RN 'Red Lines'
On the evening of 28 Dec, far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen gave PM Michel Barnier a deadline of Monday 2 December to accede to the four 'red line' demands outlined by RN leader Jordan Bardella or risk a censure motion. The timeline looks to have been moved up, with the threat of censure not centring on the 18-20 Dec period in which the vote on the main state budget (PLF) is set to come, but to the 2-4 Dec period in which the National Assembly is likely to vote on the Social Security Finance Bill (PLFSS), which precedes the main budget.
HUNGARY (MNI): Varga Seen as Sympathetic, But Little Change at NBH in Short-term
As broadly expected, PM Orban has appointed finance minister Varga as the new governor of the NBH. Operations and policy at the bank are unlikely to shift considerably as a result, with financial stability via a volatile FX rate and stubborn inflation likely to remain a priority.
DATA
- The year-on-year rise in the Tokyo core inflation rate accelerated to 2.2% in November from October’s 1.8%, rising above 2% for the first time in two months, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed on Friday.
- The November index was driven by higher energy prices (+7.4% vs. +2.5%) and household durable goods (+8.8% vs. +8.4%) and the core CPI was within forecasts by Bank of Japan officials who expected inflation to stay at about 2%.
MNI: FRANCE GDP Q3 2ND EST +0.4% Q/Q
- FRANCE GDP Q3 2ND EST +1.2% Y/Y
- FRANCE OCT CONSUMER SPENDING -0.4% M/M, +0.4% Y/Y
- FRANCE OCT CONSUMER MANUF SPENDING -0.1% M/M, +0.2% Y/Y
EUROPEAN INFLATION: November EZ HICP Y/Y In Line; Services Slightly Softer
Eurozone November flash headline, on a rounded basis, came in in line with consensus at 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.2-2.3% MNI tracking; 2.3% cons; 2.0% prior).
- On a monthly basis, inflation came in at -0.3% (vs -0.2% cons, 0.3% prior).
- On an unrounded basis, headline HICP was 2.28% Y/Y and -0.28% M/M.
- Core HICP also printed in line with consensus, at 2.7% Y/Y (prior 2.7%; unrounded: 2.74% Y/Y, -0.56% M/M).
EUROPEAN INFLATION: France Flash Inflation A Touch Softer Than Expectations
France Flash HICP for November came a touch below expectations at 1.71% Y/Y (vs 1.8% consensus, 1.59% prior), and -0.12% M/M (vs 0.0% consensus, 0.27% prior). Similarly the national CPI came slightly below consensus at 1.34% Y/Y (vs 1.4% consensus, 1.2% prior), and -0.7% M/M (vs 0.0% consensus, 0.28% prior). Looking at the details for the French national CPI (non-HICP):
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Dutch HICP Accelerates on Core Goods And Energy
Dutch flash HICP inflation rose to 3.81% in November, up from 3.31% in October, around a tenth firmer than the 3.7% expected. This equates to a 1.02% M/M sequential decrease (+0.63% prior; -1.1% cons). The headline increase was driven by energy and core goods - core HICP increased to 3.66% from 3.34% in October.
FRANCE DATA: Q3 GDP Confirms Likely Temporary Boost From Olympics
France Q3 final GDP came in a touch below flash at 1.2% Y/Y (vs 1.3% flash, 1.0% prior) though the quarterly reading came in-line with flash at 0.4% Q/Q (0.2% prior). As per the flash release, the final emphasizes that growth was "driven by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games" boosting household consumption to 0.6% Q/Q (vs 0.0% in Q2) "due to recording of ticket sales for the Olympics".
SWITZERLAND DATA: Q3 GDP Confirms Flash; Industry Weaker, Mixed Services
Swiss Q3 GDP came in in line with the flash release at +0.2% Q/Q on a sports-event and seasonally adjusted basis. This follows Q2's +0.4%, and shows the Swiss economy is continuing its gradual growth trajectory amid significant growth concerns the Eurozone. The KOF indicator increased by 2.1 points to 101.8 in November, supporting that narrative.
MARKETS
EGBS: Little Reaction In Bund Futures To Eurozone Flash Nov HICP
There was little reaction in Bund futures to Eurozone core HICP coming in a tenth below consensus on a rounded basis, with the unrounded print (2.74% Y/Y vs 2.8% cons) taking the shine off of the downward surprise.
- Bund futures are +17 ticks at 134.54, in the middle of today’s range. The early rally was largely UST-led, though weakness in crude oil and equity futures also factored in. Equities have since moved away from session lows.
- ECB 1-year ahead consumer expectations were above consensus at 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.3% cons, 2.4% prior), but 3-year expectations were steady at 2.1%.
- ECB-dated OIS price a ~10% implied probability of a 50bp cut next month, given the lack of downside surprise in the flash inflation data.
- The German curve has twist flattened, with 2s10s 2bps lower at 10.5bps, down from multi-year highs of almost 27bps earlier this month.
- The 10-year OAT/Bund continues to oscillate on French fiscal/political developments. Far right RN leader Le Pen has set a Dec 2 Deadline for PM Barnier to respond to her party’s 4 'Red Lines' on the 2025 budget. S&P are scheduled to review France’s sovereign rating after hours.
GILTS: 10-Year Yield Breaks Below 50-DMA, Outperformance Vs. Bunds
Gilts have firmed alongside EGBs this morning.
- French political and fiscal risks continue to dominate, while a downtick in crude oil futures has also factored in.
- Futures as high as 96.23 in recent trade.
- Yesterday’s high & Fibonacci resistance (96.03) both broken.
- Fresh extension higher would target the next Fibonacci level (96.33).
- Yields 3-5bp lower across the curve, flattening.
- 10s hit the lowest level seen since October 24 (4.221%).
- 50-DMA (4.252% at yesterday’s close) broken below for the first time since early October, leaving focus on the 4.20% level.
- Outperformance vs. Bunds, 10s 4bp tighter at ~210.5bp, spread below recent closing cycle highs at 216.6bp.
- Beta to post-U.S. holiday Tsy moves noted.
- SONIA futures flat to +6.0.
- BoE-dated OIS showing ~80bp of cuts through Dec ’25, sticking to recent ranges. Next full 25bp cut still discounted through March MPC
- UK headline flow remains muted, which when coupled with a limited domestic calendar, should leave macro and cross-market cues at the fore into the weekend.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Dec-24 | 4.687 | -1.3 |
Feb-25 | 4.492 | -20.8 |
Mar-25 | 4.405 | -29.5 |
May-25 | 4.246 | -45.4 |
Jun-25 | 4.165 | -53.5 |
Aug-25 | 4.053 | -64.7 |
Sep-25 | 4.006 | -69.4 |
Nov-25 | 3.936 | -76.4 |
Dec-25 | 3.902 | -79.8 |
FOREX: JPY Surges on Tokyo CPI, Leaving Tankan as Next BoJ Hurdle
- JPY is firmer against all others in G10 headed into the final session of the week, with the higher-than-expected Tokyo CPI print for November leading the currency higher. The regional print is a leading indicator for the national figure that follows in three weeks time, and will add further pressure to the split pricing at the BoJ's December decision.
- The fallout for the JPY has tipped USD/JPY to new pullback lows of 149.54, well within range of the key support at the 149.14 100-dma. A bearish close today would add to the corrective impetus and expose 149.09, the Oct 21 low, however it's the upcoming Tankan survey that we see as key for the BoJ's bias into December. The release is due on December 12th, just one week before the last BoJ decision of the year.
- The readthrough for the USD has resulted in further weakness across the USD Index, however volumes remain particularly light given the only-partial opening of US markets today - conviction will likely remain light until next week, and as markets look to gauge risk ahead of the NFP print on Friday.
- Canada GDP numbers are set to cross, as well as speeches from ECB's de Guindos and Nagel.
EQUITIES: Bear Trend in EStoxx Remains Intact
S&P E-Minis are unchanged and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. A bear trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. A fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has traded through 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 141.03 pts or -0.37% at 38208.03 and the TOPIX ended 6.57 pts lower or -0.24% at 2680.71.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 30.758 pts or +0.93% at 3326.456 and the HANG SENG ended 56.65 pts higher or +0.29% at 19423.61.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 14.56 pts or -0.08% at 19408.48, FTSE 100 lower by 4.75 pts or -0.06% at 8272.26, CAC 40 up 0.42 pts or +0.01% at 7175.39 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 4.19 pts or -0.09% at 4752.01.
- Dow Jones mini up 133 pts or +0.3% at 44966, S&P 500 mini up 18.25 pts or +0.3% at 6029, NASDAQ mini up 91.75 pts or +0.44% at 20906.25.
COMMODITIES: NatGas Futures on Front Foot After Recent Sell-Off
The long-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance.
- WTI Crude down $0.09 or -0.13% at $68.64
- Natural Gas up $0.12 or +3.59% at $3.319
- Gold spot up $22.28 or +0.84% at $2660.21
- Copper up $0.55 or +0.13% at $414.4
- Silver up $0.45 or +1.5% at $30.673
- Platinum up $10.14 or +1.08% at $945.25
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 29/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Retail Sales |
| 29/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 29/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | GDP |
| 29/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (p) |
| 29/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 29/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 29/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 29/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 29/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | CH | GDP |
| 29/11/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 29/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE M4 |
| 29/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 29/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
| 29/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** |  IT | HICP (p) |
| 29/11/2024 | 1030/1030 | GB | Financial Policy Summary and Record and Financial Stability Report | |
| 29/11/2024 | 1130/1230 | EU | ECB's de Guindos speaking at the "Encuentro de Economia" in Barcelona | |
| 29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** |  CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** |  US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 29/11/2024 | 1600/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 30/11/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/11/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 02/12/2024 | 2200/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0030/1130 | AU | Business Indicators | |
| 02/12/2024 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
| 02/12/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
| 02/12/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 02/12/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 02/12/2024 | 0730/0830 | ** | CH | Retail Sales |
| 02/12/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 02/12/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
| 02/12/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 02/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 02/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 02/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 02/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 02/12/2024 | 2015/1515 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 02/12/2024 | 2130/1630 | US | New York Fed's John Williams |