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FOREX: ANZ recommend selling GBP/NZD at NZ$1.9760, with a target of NZ$1.9200 &
a stop at NZ$2.0100.
- ANZ note that "the NZD has been one of the worst performing currencies YTD.
That reflects global themes, but also deterioration in the domestic econ picture
that has seen the mkt embrace the possibility that the RBNZ could cut interest
rates. But this domestic picture is now reasonably well understood. So for the
mkt to accelerate rate cut pricing from here, data flow will need to deteriorate
further, and over the next few weeks we struggle to see that developing. In
fact, the upcoming flow of data, headlined by Q3 CPI figures, could look
reasonable. While we retain a bearish medium-term bias for the NZD, tactically
we see risks that without this evidence the market could grow impatient, seeing
the NZD push higher. The UK, on the other hand, is facing a critical few weeks.
Brexit negotiations have so far failed to make meaningful progress. While there
remain a number of permutations that could still play out, without the UK
providing Brussels with a workable proposal before the EU Summit in mid-Oct, the
mkt's estimated probability of a no deal Brexit will rise sharply."